The use of meteorological and field specific parameters to predict the evolution of pests and diseases in winter wheat: an analysis of the epipre-database

EPIPRE, an aconym for EPIdemic PREdiction and PREvention, is an integrated pest and disease management system for spring and winter wheat based on calculations of costs and benefits of pesticide treatments. EPIPRE, a computer-based advisory system, advises on the necessity of spraying against the following pests and diseases in winter wheat: Eyespot (Pseudocercosporella herpotrichoides), powdery mildew (Erysyphe graminis), stripe rust (Puccinia striiformis), leaf rust (Puccinia recondita), leaf blotch (Mycosphaerella graminicola / Septoria tritici), glume blotch (Lepthosphaeria nodorum) and aphids (Sitobion avenae, Metopolophium dirhodum and Rhopalosiphum padi). The calculation of the expected yield loss (the potential benefit) is based on disease and pest observations, field specific parameters as for example variety, soil type, sowing date, .. and meteorological data. The user-friendly database structure of more than 6800 field observations and EPIPRE-recommendations during the last two years (1993 and 1994) makes it possible to examine the existence of relationships between field observations and meteorological parameters, between field observations and field specific parameters. In this article we will compare the evolution of leaf blotch and eyespot during the last two seasons 1993 and 1994, which where extremely different from meteorological point of view. The analysis is based on more than 6800 field observations, collected by the EPIPRE-advisory system on more than 1200 different wheat fields in Belgium and the North of France. This article will not only discuss the evolution of the several pests and diseases during the growth season in general, but also on the level of varieties and more field specific parameters.